The ‘blue wave’ takes over US Congress: What does this mean for Latin America?

A ‘blue wave’ has swept the Republican Party out of control of both chambers of the US Congress, while securing at least 27 governorships for the Democrats. The shift in the political landscape could herald a profound change in the Trump administration’s agenda over the next two years. Reporting from Washington, Héctor Silva Ávalos explores what this could mean for the present and future of the fight against organised crime and violence in Latin America.

05 November 2026

Words: Héctor Silva Ávalos, reporting from Washington

 Illustration: Jonathan Gómez

Nuevo Congreso en Estados Unidos

1. What does this new Congress mean for Latin America?

The new Congress is likely to reshape the final two years of the Trump administration.

Although foreign policy in the United States is determined by the executive branch, Congress has significant powers to influence and constrain it.

First, as the majority party, the Democrats will chair congressional committees and control the legislative agenda. This means they will be able to convene existing committees, establish new ones, summon government officials to testify and subject decisions made by the White House to scrutiny. The question now is how they will choose to exercise that power.

Second, there is the issue of the budget. Both the House of Representatives and the Senate play a role in approving federal spending, including funding for international cooperation programmes, military assistance, security initiatives and aid to other governments. This is a crucial tool in determining how public policies are implemented.

As far as foreign policy is concerned, Venezuela is likely to feature prominently on the agenda, particularly in relation to the oil deals Trump negotiated behind closed doors and the benefits they generated for his allies.

For countries that are not a foreign policy priority, such as those in Central America, Congress can set the tone, whether through opposition to, acceptance of or indifference towards the policies pursued by their governments. This could have negative consequences for leaders such as Nayib Bukele in El Salvador and Nasry Asfura in Honduras, who have pursued hard-line security policies with Trump’s approval, despite criticism that these measures violate human rights.

Furthermore, the possible expansion of investigations into the president and some of his closest allies, concerning questions about their business dealings and other matters, could distract Trump from his regional agenda.

In many cases, these strategies have had a profound impact on marginalised communities struggling to survive amid violence.

2. How could the new Congress affect the fight against organised crime, drug trafficking and the militarisation of security in Latin America?

The Trump administration has brought about a major shift in the way the United States tackles organised crime in Latin America. This has included designating criminal groups as ‘Foreign Terrorist Organisations’, broadening the scope of action available to the US against them, as well as militarising its regional security strategy, among other measures. In many cases, these strategies have had a profound impact on marginalised communities struggling to survive amid violence.

Since September 2025, US forces have carried out lethal military operations against vessels which the US government has accused of transporting drugs in the Caribbean and Pacific. At least 227 people were killed in 69 attacks carried out up to 2 September 2026, in what human rights organisations and the United Nations have already described as international crimes.

However, much of what is considered a protest vote against Trump stems from his decision to prioritise international issues rather than address key domestic concerns affecting his electorate. This could lead to a suspension or reduction in funding for these types of operations.

3. How might immigration policies, deportations and cooperation between the United States and Latin America change?

Since Trump’s return to the White House, the United States has stepped up deportations, restricted avenues for immigration protection and expanded agreements with Latin American governments to receive people deported from the US, including individuals who are not citizens of those countries.

Democrats will now face pressure to take decisions on these issues.

One option available to them is to try to restrict the budget of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement), which would limit the agency’s operational capacity. But there is another dimension: the political one, which has to do with the Latino vote that all parties will be seeking to win ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

For this reason, and given what these election results have demonstrated, Republicans are likely to come under pressure to adopt a much less aggressive approach to immigration, partly to avoid losing the Latino vote altogether.

Some, however, argue that the opposite could happen: the results may embolden the most xenophobic elements of the White House, including Trump himself, prompting an even tougher stance on immigration.

The war with Iran has taken a heavy toll on the country's finances. It is a conflict that shows little sign of coming to a definitive end and continues to consume enormous resources.

4. Could the new Congress change Trump’s strategy of militarising regional security?

When it comes to militarisation, budgetary considerations will be crucial, as will issues directly related to the Department of Defence, which is now referred to as the Department of War.

The war with Iran has taken a heavy toll on the country’s finances. It is a conflict that shows little sign of coming to a definitive end and continues to consume enormous resources. The conflict with Iran, immigration policy and inflation are among the factors that have contributed to Trump’s unpopularity.

All of this could therefore play an important role in determining how the strategy moves forward.

5. How will all this affect the lives of marginalised communities in Latin America?

I believe that, in this respect, human mobility is a key issue, because what the Trump administration has done is criminalise it.

Historically, Democrats in the United States have been rather lukewarm and dismissive when it comes to immigration. But for a large part of the electorate, anything other than the current situation represents progress.

For most marginalised and criminalised communities in Latin America, however, the biggest problem is that they are simply not a priority for the United States.

It is therefore unlikely that Washington, whether under Republican or Democratic control, will take action in response to the abuses that figures such as Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, Javier Milei in Argentina or Nayib Bukele in El Salvador may commit — abuses that have a profound impact on marginalised communities. These issues simply do not appear to be on the agenda.

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